The rumblings of forces destabilizing the established global order will continue in 2024. Not only the geo-political upheaval that the War in Gaza has unleashed. Nor only the geological forces that will produce more environmental calamities. The conflict amongst Capital, Consumers, and Citizens, which has been rumbling beneath economists’ numbers of growth and employment will also increase.
Consumers want better things at lower prices. They are frustrated when they cannot buy them. Consumers are citizens too, who need jobs and incomes to participate in prosperity. Capital wants profits. Its business models must produce more revenue at less cost. So, capital wants to reduce wage costs: and pay less, and employ fewer people when they can be replaced by obedient technology.
2023 began with concerns about the state of the economy and the outlook for stock markets. In the US, there was fear its economy may slip into a recession. It escaped the recession, however. Stock markets ended on record highs. In India, where too the stock market broke records, the concern was how much the economy would grow, not whether it would. The deeper concern for the Indian economy is whether growth is creating enough good jobs and incomes for India’s millions of young people. They are expected to provide a demographic dividend for the economy: which they will provided they can earn and spend enough.
Abraham Lincoln once said, “You can fool all people some of the time and some people all the time. But you can never fool all people all the time.” Indian employment statistics are unreliable. They cannot establish whether the UPA’s or the NDA’s policies have created enough income for citizens in the lower half of the pyramid. The way they are compiled cannot reveal the real state of employment and incomes.
Government statistics cannot fool the people any longer. There is abundant evidence that youth are despairing about opportunities to earn enough. Educated youth are lining up for menial jobs. Many are attempting to immigrate with great risks to their lives. Or taking to drugs; and violent robberies, on the streets and in homes, reports of which increase every month.
“May you live in interesting times” is a Chinese expression to wish someone ill. 2024, an election year, will be an interesting year in the world’s two largest democracies. US politics is in turmoil. Donald Trump, who complained the election system is rigged when he lost the last election, seems likely to be popularly elected, and by the same system. India will have a momentous election too, and it is most likely that Mr. Modi’s government will win again.
What policies will the US and Indian governments follow? How easy will it be for business to do business? Will capital and stock markets continue to thrive? On the other hand, will citizens thrive? Will there be adequate opportunities for them to earn? The size of the GDP does not matter as much to citizens as the shape of the economy. “You shall reap what you sow”, the Bible says. Inequitable economic growth which favours capital over citizens cannot be economically, socially, or politically sustainable in the long run.
My wish for the New Year is to listen deeply to common people to find the truth which statistics hide. I pray that we, the privileged, will speak up more clearly for them to make the world better for everyone.
Gandhiji’s talisman to all leaders was this. Whenever you must make a policy or take a big decision, think of what effect it will have on the poorest people.
I hope that leaders of the richest and most powerful nation on Earth will discover their humanity to save the suffering people in Palestine, who are being battered by ammunitions produced by US defense companies, whose revenues and stocks soared in 2023. Property rights—the bedrock principle of capitalism, and based on a mythical land title at that, must not trump human rights—the bedrock of a moral democracy, in Palestine.