Will India make it? The famous BRICS Report says that India will be the world’s third largest economy, after China and the US, by 2050—far ahead of even Japan. But we cannot be sure. We should not forget that 20 years back analysts had projected that Japan would be zooming into the 21st century which would be the Japanese century. But ten years later, Japan stumbled. And who remembers that in 1975 the Soviet Union was the second largest economy in the world, closely rivaling the USA? Nevertheless, 15 years later, it had disintegrated. Analysts’ predictions often turn out to be very wrong. Therefore how sure can we be what India will be like even 15 years hence, let alone in 2050?
Just now, China’s growth is tantalizing, perhaps even frightening the world. The Chinese have their act together. Whereas progress in India, which is going through an era of coalition governments, is slower. According to many Indians who envy the remarkable improvements in China’s cities and its infrastructure, we suffer from the drag of democratic processes. Many economists opine that in poor countries economic growth should precede democracy. However, India cannot go back on its history. Though it is poor, it is a democracy and its people, even its poorest, will not give up their democratic rights. Therefore Indians have no option but to improve the way their democracy functions by tackling two, inter-related questions:
- What is the process by which a large, diverse, and democratic country can accelerate its development?
- What is the appropriate model of leaders for this process?
A few years back, a large and diverse group of people in India applied themselves to these very questions. They were concerned that, while India seemed to have escaped the Hindu rate of growth that had dogged it until the 1980s, and had begun to change and grow faster since the 1990s, the improvement was not fast enough to eradicate the country’s enormous problems, such as poverty, failing social services, and poor infrastructure. They used a process called ‘generative scenario thinking’ in which the underlying forces within a complex situation are analyzed—not only the ‘facts’ that are visible above the surface. Thus, by understanding the interplay of underlying forces, insight is obtained into what is likely to emerge in the future. The diverse group in India, including economists, senior government officials, journalists, artists, businessmen, teachers, students, political leaders, and others combined their varied perspectives and constructed a systemic view of the Indian reality that they could not have seen from their own, narrow, perspectives.
With these insights, four scenarios emerged of the forces of change shaping India’s future. Since a picture can say more than a thousand words, evocative images from India’s own Panchtantra folk tales were selected to convey the essence of these four models of change and leadership. Recently when the World Economic Forum wanted to examine the future of India on behalf of its international members, it also used the process of scenario thinking and it built its scenarios with these insights.
Let me describe the scenarios of how India may change over the next 20 years and what the outcomes may be.
‘Atakta Bharat’: Buffaloes Wallowing
The first scenario of leadership and change is called ‘Buffaloes Wallowing’. This is a familiar sight in the Indian countryside: buffaloes cooling themselves in a pond. It is difficult for any of them to move because they are surrounded by others. In this scenario, many experts and bureaucrats, and such people in their ‘high-up’ positions are expected to determine the policies and changes required and to bring them about. However, they cannot all agree on what should be done. When one proposes, others oppose, and nothing much happens. (We loosely call such people in high positions ‘leaders’ regardless of how ineffective they are.) Meanwhile, the people in the country wait for progress, especially the young people who will need jobs when they grow up. Imagine a little boy on the side of the pond. That is the future of India, waiting for the so-called leaders to agree and move. The WEF called this scenario ‘Atakta Bharat’, which means India (Bharat) intermittently stalling as it progresses, hampered by a lack of consensus amongst the various political groups.
‘Bollyworld’: Peacocks Strutting; Wolves Prowling
The second scenario of leadership and change, called ‘Peacocks Strutting; Birds Scrambling’ is the story of the free market and trickle down—get the government out of the way and leave it to business. In this story, a woman scatters grain in her yard for the little sparrows to eat. Some pigeons arrive and push aside the sparrows. Then a peacock arrives in their midst and even the pigeons move aside. All the birds look with awe at the peacock and admire its finery and its size. The sparrows hope that after the peacock has eaten, there will be something left for them, if not today, then the next day. The so-called ‘leaders’ of society that are admired in this model are the wealthy, like those whose expensive clothes and revels are displayed in the electronic and print media.
It is this scenario the Indian Prime Minister drew attention to at the annual meeting of the Confederation of Indian Industry in May this year. He worried about the reaction of the have-nots to ostentatious displays of wealth which they felt may be too far beyond their reach.
The third scenario of leadership and change, ‘Tigers Growling; Wolves Prowling’, is about the uses and abuses of concentrated power. This scenario often arises as a reaction to the peacocks strutting amidst scrambling birds. Sometimes, frustrated by perceived injustices and the inability of democratic processes to address them, people will support dictatorial leaders who claim to take up their cause. In this scenario of the law of the jungle, the tiger that cannot be challenged by other animals gets his way. However, around him, wolves prey on helpless smaller animals. But the tiger doesn’t care. As Lord Acton said, ‘power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely’. Like the wolves in the jungle, the powerful leaders’ family and friends feed on the little people who live in fear of them.
India is presently experiencing the simultaneous advance of both these scenarios—Peacocks Strutting with Birds Scrambling, and Tigers Growling with Wolves Prowling. The WEF called this combo-scenario ‘Bollyworld’, after ‘Bollywood’—the popular name of India’s vibrant film industry. Like a Bollywood movie, this scenario combines glamour and fun with tragedy and violence. And like a Bollywood movie, which must come to an end, perhaps this scenario is not sustainable.
‘Pahale India’: Fireflies Arising
The fourth scenario is different in a fundamental way. Unlike the others, it puts the onus for leadership and for making change happen deeper into the system and not only on leaders at the top—whether buffaloes, peacocks, or tigers. India is a diverse, democratic and complex system. The theory of ‘complex self-adaptive systems’ says that dynamic systems with great diversity (like India) cannot be ‘controlled’ from a single center. Change in India will be brought about by many hundreds of thousands of people who take the initiative in local centers of action, rather than waiting for an all-powerful (and hopefully benign) leader to emerge at the center.
This scenario is called ‘Fireflies Arising’. The picture is a dark, hot, summer night in the Indian countryside. Little fireflies arise out of the surrounding darkness. Their numbers increase. Soon the night is aglitter with myriad bright lights. Fireflies are living lights, carrying their own light. The fireflies in this scenario are the leaders, whoever they may be and wherever they are, who take the first steps towards what they deeply care about in ways that others wish to follow. In this scenario, many Indians in many walks of life take responsibility for making change in their lives and in the world around them. The WEF called this scenario ‘Pahale India’—India First.
India has many fireflies arising already, in many forms, and their numbers are multiplying. Millions of women in self help groups, the increasing number of social entrepreneurs, the proliferation of small businesses, exemplar CSR by some corporations, and even government officials who are producing change through innovations, are all examples.
Sir Vidya Naipaul’s first book on India, in 1964, was titled, “An Area of Darkness”. His next, in 1976, which pointed out the deadening effect of government on India’s progress, was called, “India: A Wounded Civilization”. His third, in 1990, was “India: A Million Mutinies Now.” Perhaps the scenario of India now emerging is “India: Many Million Fireflies Now.”
All three scenarios of India are based on evidence and hence are plausible. In fact, one can see elements of all of them in the country at this time. But which is the best option for India? CEOs and economists want numbers, not pictures. Therefore the WEF commissioned two econometric modelers, one in the UK and one in India, to run its three scenarios in their computers and determine what would be the rate of growth in India’s GDP and reduction of poverty in each of them. They confirmed that Pahale India with Fireflies Arising produces the highest and most sustainable growth, exceeding 10% even, and the fastest reduction in poverty. Bollyworld could also produce a burst of similar high growth but it would not be sustained because tensions within Indian society would create impediments.
India’s growth rate has begun to nudge towards the 10% rate that both ‘Pahale India’ and ‘Bollyworld’ promise. India’s development path is at a juncture now. If Indians want to make Pahale India their preferred way to the future, they must identify the forces that bring it about and strengthen those forces.
Analysis by the group that developed the scenarios of India revealed that, in addition to a sound macro-economic framework, five forces that should be made much stronger to produce the scenario of Pahale India with Fireflies Arising are:
- Provide relevant education to children and women through new technology
- Facilitate local initiatives
- Strengthen infrastructure
- Develop new models and skills of leadership
- Propagate successful stories and build confidence
That is the way to generate the many million fireflies that will transform India, giving it light all over. The essence of this approach is to release the energy at the bottom of the pyramid, rather than create large, top-down programs. Many examples of such fireflies are already visible in India. The challenge is to multiply them, and ‘scale up’ their benefits without creating a large scale organization for this purpose because that would kill the spirit of local initiatives, and would produce more wallowing buffaloes than fireflies. Instead, the increasing scale required must be obtained by enabling the many local initiatives, in regions, states, and localities, to link with each other, as well as learn from each other.
Several government policies and programs are now enabling this to happen. The unified VAT tax system and changes in agricultural marketing laws are facilitating smoother commerce across state boundaries. India’s telecommunications infrastructure has leaped ahead and mobile connections across the country are now even easier to make than in the USA. In a massive national program, roads are being built to connect all of India’s villages, in addition to a grid of modern highways across the country.
In addition, for more Indians, men and women, to have access to opportunities when they have the will, they must have access to finance on reasonable terms, and, above all, to education. Many schemes, both private and government, are directed towards meeting the financial needs of people at the ‘bottom of the pyramid’ in innovative ways—micro-lending to women’s self-help groups is one of them. Education reform, to enable equal access to education, to provide a good education from primary to higher levels, and to modernize and expand vocational education, is India’s crying need today. Another area for reform is healthcare. India’s huge pool of young people, which is expected to provide the demographic dividend to India’s economy in the next few decades, must be healthy, educated, and employable. Otherwise such large numbers of young people could be a huge burden rather than an asset. Therefore education and healthcare are now the focus of much attention in government, the private sector, and civil society also. It is very likely that innovative solutions will emerge from the intensive interactions amongst these sectors.
Finally, it is India’s destiny to develop a new model combining democracy and markets that will create growth with equity, and thereby take a huge and diverse nation from poverty to prosperity, and many millions from serfdom to opportunity, on a scale and at a speed never achieved before in human history. India seems to have found signs indicating the path it must follow, a path not taken before.